Rise of the bots! AI poses a threat to two thirds of jobs in the US and Europe, study finds – with 300 MILLION full-time positions at risk of automation

A quarter of jobs could soon be automated as a result of breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, a report has warned.

Research by investment bank Goldman Sachs highlighted that ‘generative’ AI systems such as ChatGPT – a computer program able to create writing and other content indistinguishable from that of a human – could spark an economic boom and increase global gross domestic product by 7 per cent in a decade.

But the technology would also cause ‘significant disruption’ to employment, with around 300million full-time jobs at risk of being automated, it warned.

Two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe could be affected, report authors Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani calculated – with lawyers and administrative staff among those at high risk of redundancy.

But most employees were likely to see less than half their workload automated and could continue in their jobs with time freed up for more productive work.

The research calculated this partial automation could include 63 per cent of jobs in the US, where 7 per cent could see over half their work automated, leaving them vulnerable to replacement by AI, the Financial Times reported.

Goldman predicted a similar impact in Europe, although the bank’s estimates were at the more conservative end of the spectrum compared with other studies measuring the potential impact of AI on the workplace. Last week, a paper published by OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, found 80 per cent of US jobs could see more than 10 per cent of their tasks done by AI.

Tasks that Goldman assumed the technology could perform included completing tax returns for small businesses, evaluating insurance claims and documenting results from crime scene investigations.

But more complex jobs are expected to remain the sole preserve of humans – making court rulings and checking the health of critically ill patients are unlikely to be replaced by AI. Physical and outdoor roles such as construction are also unlikely to be affected.

The report is likely to fuel fears that many types of white-collar jobs could become obsolete in the way many manufacturing roles were lost in the 1980s through the rise of factory robots.

Other concerns centre on AI becoming a tool of the criminal underworld. Last week Europol, the EU’s law enforcement agency, warned rapid advances in generative AI could help online fraudsters and be ‘a key criminal business model of the future.’

Examples it cited included AI being used to create highly convincing ‘deep fakes’ – images or videos of events that did not happen – or chatbots designed to scam unsuspecting people into disclosing personal information.